News-Commentary

The Good News 2004

December 30, 2004

in News-Commentary

America’s kids are all right. Juvenile violent crime (search) has fallen every year – and nearly halved – since 1995. The percentage of high school students who carry weapons to school is at a 10-year low. There were 14 homicides on school campuses in 2002-03, down from 34 10 years earlier. Teen birthrates (search) are at a 20-year low, and high school dropout rates are at a 35-year low.

America is healthier. Life expectancy in the U.S. (search) is at an all-time high among men and women, black and white. People at every age can expect to live longer than anyone at their age in U.S. history. Heart disease, cardiovascular disease and stroke have fallen dramatically in the last 15 years. Incidence of, and deaths from, cancer have dropped every year since 1990.

America is cleaner. Concentration levels of every major air pollutant have dropped dramatically since 1970, even as we drive more, consume more, and produce more. According to data analyzed by the Pacific Research Institute (search), U.S. water has been getting steadily cleaner for the last 20 years.

The world is less violent. In his book, “A History of Force,” the historian James L. Payne (search) argues that when you adjust for population increases, over the course of history, the average citizen of the world has grown less likely to die a violent death caused by government, war or his fellow man. War, murder, genocide, sacrificial killing, rioting – all have tapered off over time.

The trend continues even into recent years. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (search), there were just 19 major armed conflicts in 2003, down from 44 in 1995. Existing wars seem to be less violent, too. According to the Human Security Report (search), published by the University of British Columbia, 700,000 people died in battle in 1951. By the 1990s, the number had fallen to 40,000-100,000. In 2002, it was just 15,000. This, as the world’s population increased.

The world is freer. According to the United Nations, as of 2002, 70 percent of the world’s nations were holding multi-party elections. Fifty-eight percent of the world’s population lived under a fully democratic system of governance. Both of these figures are at their highest points in human history.

The Freedom House (search) think tank gave 89 countries containing 46 percent of the world’s population a ranking of “free” in the 2003 edition of its annual Freedom of the World report (search). Both figures are at their highest in the 30-year history of the survey. Freedom House also reports that countries moving toward more freedom have outpaced countries moving away from freedom by three to one.

The world is less poor. Yale University’s David Dollar has pointed out that since 1980, the total number of people living on less than $1 per day has actually fallen by 200 million, despite the fact that the world’s population increased by 1.8 billion. It’s the first time in recorded history that that has happened. The UN’s 2004 Human Development Report (search) notes that real per capita incomes in the developing world have more than doubled since 1975. In some provinces in China, incomes are doubling every few months.

The world is healthier. Between 1960 and 2000, life expectancy in developing countries increased from 46 to 63 years. Mortality rates of children under five are half of what they were forty years ago.

The world is getting cleaner. Most economists now endorse the concept of a “green ceiling,” (search) which means that although the transition from a developing economy to a developed one requires some environmental exploitation, there is a point at which a country becomes wealthy enough that its citizens will begin to demand environmental protection.

The key is to get each country to that point as quickly as possible. And as noted earlier, that’s exactly what’s happening. The good news is, the “green ceiling” is getting lower every day. Right now, it stands at about $5,000 per capita GDP, but the World Bank (search) reported in 1997 that poor countries begin turning the corner on water pollution, for example, at as low as $500 per capita.

So take heart. As we head into a new year, both the U.S. and the world are growing safer, healthier, and less violent. Most of the world is getting freer. It may not seem like it, given the images we’re seeing on the news, but man on the whole is making himself better.

Radley Balko maintains a Weblog at: href="http://www.theagitator.com/"
target="_blank">www.TheAgitator.com.

The year is 1904…

November 28, 2004

in News-Commentary

The year is 1904 . One hundred years ago. What a difference a century makes! Here are some of the US statistics for 1904:

The average life expectancy in the US was 47 years.

Only 14% of the homes in the US had a bathtub.

Only 8% of the homes had a telephone.

A three-minute call from Denver to New York City cost $11.00

There were only 8,000 cars in the US, and only 144 miles of paved roads.

The maximum speed limit in most cities was 10 mph.

Alabama, Mississippi, Iowa, and Tennessee each had more people than California.  With only 1.4 million residents, California was the 21st most populous state in the Union.

The tallest structure in the world was the Eiffel Tower.

The average wage in the US was 22 cents an hour.

The average US worker made between $200 and $400 per year.

More than 95 percent of all births in the US took place at home.

About 90% of all US physicians had no college education. Instead, they attended medical schools, many of which were condemned in the press and by the government as “substandard.”

Sugar cost four cents a pound. Eggs were fourteen cents a dozen.

Coffee was fifteen cents a pound.

Most women only washed their hair once a month, and used borax or egg yolks for shampoo.

The five leading causes of death in the US were:

1. Pneumonia and influenza
2. Tuberculosis
3. Diarrhea
4. Heart disease
5. Stroke

The American flag had 45 stars. Arizona, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Alaska hadn’t been admitted to the Union yet.

The population of Las Vegas, Nevada, was 30!

Crossword puzzles, canned beer, and iced tea hadn’t been invented.

There was no Mother’s Day or Father’s Day.

Two of every 10 adults in the US could not read or write. Only 6% of all Americans had completed high school.

Marijuana, heroin, and morphine were all available over the counter at corner drugstores. According to one pharmacist,
“Heroin clears the complexion, gives buoyancy to the mind, regulates the stomach and bowels, and is, in fact, a perfect guardian of health.”

Eighteen percent of households in the US had at least one full-time servant or domestic.

There were only about 230 reported murders in the entire US.

Take the Pledge

No matter who wins: I will not proclaim that the president is incompetent for failing to magically resolve some tough geopolitical situation, such as North Korea’s nukes or the Israel/Palestine problem, unless I can propose something with stronger logic to recommend it than the fact that the president isn’t doing it right now. I will [...]

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Night of Terror and the Right to Vote

The women were innocent and defenseless. And by the end of the night, they were barely alive. Forty prison guards wielding clubs and their warden’s blessing went on a rampage against the 33 women wrongly convicted of “obstructing sidewalk traffic.” They beat Lucy Burn, chained her hands to the cell bars above her head and [...]

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National ID Card a Bad Idea Says Bruce

Good article on national ID card issues from Bruce Schneier at http://www.schneier.com/essay-034.html ; if you were on the fence or arguing FOR a national ID card, the whole article is worth a read. Here is a short quote: It doesn’t really matter how well an ID card works when used by the hundreds of millions [...]

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TV Kills

From Adam Curry [ http://www.blognewsnetwork.com/members/0000001/2004/04/06.html#a5496 ]: I remember as a kid the stories that circulated around television usage. Of course the kid next door was doing poorly at school, his brain was rotting away because he watched too much tv! I think I recall another one about it causing cancer, which was probably too big [...]

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Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance

[ From http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/ ] The future is bright, according to a report co-sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Commerce (DOC). You can find the 405-page report in PDF format at the link above, but you can read individual sections too. Ed Frauenheim, from CNET News.com, wrote an article about this [...]

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